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🌎El Niño Fades, La Niña Expected by Late Summer🌎
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🌎El Niño Fades, La Niña Expected by Late Summer🌎
Though still present, El Niño weakened significantly over the last few months.
El Niño is a coupled system, meaning the ocean and atmosphere both exhibit characteristic changes. Most of the standard equatorial Pacific atmospheric indicators were near average at the end of April. However, the April average sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific was still 0.8 °C above average. The latest weekly measurement was 0.5 °C above average. Given that the El Niño threshold is 0.5 °C, we’re right on the edge of the transition to neutral conditions.
👉 Once this El Niño ends, it’s likely that our spell of neutral conditions won’t be a long one, with La Niña expected to develop by the late summer and last through the early winter at least.
The graph image below shows probabilities of El Niño, neutral, or La Niña conditions over three month periods, represented by the first letter of each month.
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